The argument in a nutshell (the diagnosis is convincing; the overall prescription of a healthy scepticism of highly confident predictions by hedgehogs likewise; the specific sketching of how this might be applied in the context of climate change somewhat less so in being somewhat unsophisticated in treatment of real world implications and opportunity cost):
The world is complicated and not linear.
The illusion of control.
Tendency to see patterns and causation where there is none; difficulty with randomness.
Optimism bias - feeling good about own judgements.
CONFIRMATION BIAS.
Status quo bias: tomorrow will be like today, only more so (tendency to project current trends). Affected by anchoring effect from today's trends. Even more so by availability heuristic: the most recent is always freshest in our mind.
Dislike of uncertainty.
Power of authority; certainty convinces.
We remember the hits and not the misses. Experts' and media organisations' incentives reinforce this.
Cognitive dissonance - actively seek to avoid. Seek a story that avoids confronting a failed prediction.
Hindsight bias: knowing the outcome makes us judge it more likely than before we knew that outcome.
Foxes are better at predictions than hedgehogs.
The world is complicated and not linear.
The illusion of control.
Tendency to see patterns and causation where there is none; difficulty with randomness.
Optimism bias - feeling good about own judgements.
CONFIRMATION BIAS.
Status quo bias: tomorrow will be like today, only more so (tendency to project current trends). Affected by anchoring effect from today's trends. Even more so by availability heuristic: the most recent is always freshest in our mind.
Dislike of uncertainty.
Power of authority; certainty convinces.
We remember the hits and not the misses. Experts' and media organisations' incentives reinforce this.
Cognitive dissonance - actively seek to avoid. Seek a story that avoids confronting a failed prediction.
Hindsight bias: knowing the outcome makes us judge it more likely than before we knew that outcome.
Foxes are better at predictions than hedgehogs.
